The Concept of Reversion to Mean in Project Management

In everyday life we experience abnormalities all the time. Consider fluctuations in the weather and the occurrence of above average temperatures, often followed by periods of below average temperatures. Consider that periods of extraordinary decreases typically follow periods of extraordinarily high stock market gains. Even consider that your body may experience periods of added pain, discomfort or stiffness, followed by periods of much better feelings without any medical intervention.

Indeed, the occurrence of what we might call “abnormal” is, well, normal!

But the lesson is that, without any intervention from us, experiences out of the ordinary will tend to move back toward the norm.

And there is a term for this – reversion to mean.

What this means is that we need to be careful about what action we consider in light of the data at hand. Here are a few applications in the realm of project management:

What areas of your project might appear to be out or the ordinary…and might simply revert to mean? Could it be possible that the man is shifting?

The Concept of Reversion to Mean in Project Management

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