What is Normalcy Bias
Whenever a natural disaster hits the survivors can usually be divided into two groups: Those who prepared ahead of time, and those that didn’t. The people who don’t prepare usually operate under the mindset that everything is going to be fine, and nothing bad is really going to happen. They underestimate the effect of natural disasters no matter how many warnings are flashed before their eyes. This denial of the possible danger during a disaster is known as Normalcy Bias.
Normalcy Bias is defined as follows:
Normalcy bias is a psychological state of denial people enter in the event of a disaster, as a result of which they underestimate the possibility of the disaster actually happening, and its effects on their life and property. Their denial is based on the assumption that if the disaster has not occurred until now, it will never occur.
The reason that
Normalcy Bias is so dangerous in the middle of a disaster is that the people
who want to deny the event will look to the people who have prepared for the
event for help. All of their denial means that they don’t have supplies ready
for emergency situations, and that’s when desperation sinks in.
Normalcy Bias is a state of mind that develops
before the disaster
even starts, and it becomes exacerbated once the disaster
event hits. Let’s examine the dangers of Normalcy Bias leading
up to a disaster and why it’s such a huge threat once a disaster hits.
Disasters can
happen anywhere, at any time. From terror attacks to weather events, disasters
happen every day all around the world. While it’s impossible to predict when
they will all happen, there are some very predictable aspects of natural
disasters that can inform how you prepare.
Certain parts
of the United States are known for weather events that occur every year on a
seasonal basis. There’s Tornado Alley, or flooding in the Midwest, and every
year there is at least one major hurricane that hits the East Coast. There are
also Nor’Easters and superstorms that hit every now and again, and let’s not
forget the recent spate of polar vortex weather patterns that drop
record-setting low temperatures and historic amounts of snow across the
Northeast.
On the West Coast
there are the inevitable droughts and fires that take place regularly. Fires
are a very regular occurrence these days, and the fiery infernos lead to
mudslides when the heat gives way to the region’s rainy season.
The West Coast is also known for earthquakes. Though they’re not a regular occurrence, California, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska are all sitting on the Ring of Fire, which means that earthquakes (and possible tsunamis) are always a possibility even though they don’t happen often. In fact, many experts claim that California’s storied San Andreas Fault is “due” for the next “Big One.”
With all of this in mind, it would be hard to believe
that there are people in these areas who don’t have an emergency plan in case
something happens. Earthquakes aside, everything else happens on a season
basis. From fires to mudslides, tornados and hurricanes to polar vortices, and
large amounts of rainfall that leads to flooding. These things happen all the
time, so wouldn’t it make sense to be ready?
Anyone who
lives in one of the areas affected, which is just about everyone, should have
some kind of plan. Yet, despite all of the evidence and the seasonal nature of
these weather events, many people aren’t prepared for impending disasters.
The fact that 41%
of people polled admit not being ready for a disaster is the first red flag of
the dangers of Normalcy Bias. These people know that disasters, especially
natural disasters, are imminent. They can happen at any time, and yet they
aren’t prepared.
Why?
In many cases, these
people don’t actually believe something is going to happen. No matter how many
times you tell someone living along the Atlantic coast that hurricanes will
happen, they will still deny that they will be impacted. What’s more is that
many of these people become the ones who think they can ride out a hurricane.
They’re the ones that ignore evacuation warnings because “it’s not going to be
that bad” so they stay in their homes during floods, and when the waters pass
their ceilings they’re on their roofs with signs asking for a rescue.
People suffering
from cases of Normalcy Bias are the ones who look around in the middle of a
disaster and claim that they had no idea something could happen, no matter how
much evidence was there beforehand.
Sadly, while
these people are lamenting their situation, they’re not making any progress
fixing their situations. While they sit around in disbelief that things have
fallen apart, they’re also looking to see who is going to help them.
The challenge for
people who suffer from Normalcy Bias is that they’re the ones caught unprepared
in the middle of a disaster. Rather than prepare, they prefer thinking that it
won’t be that bad and nothing will happen to them, and as soon as things take a
turn for the worst, they learn how wrong they are they start pointing fingers.
A classic example of this is when people who ride out hurricanes discover that there is no food or emergency services available during the storm and in the immediate aftermath. Their first inclination is to ask why no one is helping them. They could have evacuated; they could have packed supplies, and when everything falls apart they wonder why someone else isn’t helping them.
The problem
with this line of thinking is that it puts first responders in unnecessary
jeopardy when they have to perform dangerous rescues. If these same people put
a little bit of effort into being prepared, and listening to evacuation orders,
things would be much different.
While zombie
apocalypse scenarios are fictional situations, consider what usually happens
following a virus breakout. Unlike a natural disaster, where emergency
personnel will pour in to save the day when it’s safe to do so, a zombie
apocalypse will keep going. Most depictions show a complete collapse of the
government, so anyone waiting around for the government or the military to
swoop in and save the day will probably be eaten before accepting that help
isn’t coming.
However, first
responders aren’t the only ones whose safety is at risk from people who are
blinded by Normalcy Bias during a disaster. As it happens, you’re at risk more
than anyone else.
A common theme in
disaster movies, whether it’s a natural disaster or a zombie apocalypse, is
that people tend to fall into two categories: Those that are ready, and those
that aren’t. Now, if you get caught in the middle of a wildfire on public
transportation, no one is going to fault you for not having your emergency kit
ready. But generally speaking, there are people who plan and those who don’t.
If a massive
earthquake struck, it could be days before help arrives. That means that people
will have to rely upon the supplies they have on hand. The people who don’t have
food and water will have to search for it, and if supplies are limited, there
could be rioting.
Anyone who sees
that you have supplies will want them. It’s possible that they will ask nicely
for you to share your food and water, but it’s more likely that they will
implore you to share while claiming (erroneously) that you have some moral
obligation to share your supplies.
This presents
a major challenge because of course, you want to help people, but you also have
to consider your family’s needs before anyone else’s, and their lack of
planning is not your problem. Should you refuse to share, it could lead to more
than bruised feelings. The other people could resort to violence if the
situation is desperate enough, and should they manage to steal your supplies it
will leave you without.
In the end, the only way to truly protect yourself from people dealing with Normalcy Bias in the middle of a disaster is to be prepared for anything, and to be prepared to defend yourself (including – and especially – your supplies) when bad things happen. All you can do is to provide for your own needs and make sure that you don’t share anything unless you’re willing to accept that one handout could turn into many handouts.
When Normalcy
Bias turns into entitlement, and the belief that relief is “owed” to people who
didn’t bother to prepare, you’ll find that desperation will quickly escalate to
make a bad situation even worse.
The only way to truly combat Normalcy Bias during a disaster is to try to talk sense into people you know before the disaster strikes. If you demonstrate the need to be prepared, you just might inspire someone to pack a few supplies away just in case. If someone is your family suffers from tips condition, here are some tips for talking to them about preparedness.
I never knew it actually had a name. I like so many others try to be prepared for my family and instill the importance of it to them. We have had a few skirmishes with weather caused problems and they now fully understand. I think preparing for the problems created by people outside your support group is the hardest. I know a lot of people say they will defend to the death, but unless they are a veteran or a person who has pulled the trigger or at the very least been trained, I doubt most could go through with it. In the movie “American Blackout” you have a prepared family that violated some of there own rules and also could not pull the trigger. So yes, very hard to determine when to or not kill in self defense. That very thing should not stop you from trying to be prepared. It is a continuous effort, always build on your preps.
Normalcy bias goes beyond the ‘it won’t happen here’ mindset. It continues with the people rebuilding in the same flood zone claiming ‘it won’t happen again’. There has to be some limit to the rebuilding in areas where the problems have occurred repeatedly. Look at the floods in the Midwest – nearly every year.
Between now and whenever the next disaster happens, find a place you can go and be welcome. Then offer your place as a place for the people that will help you to shelter if something happens at their end. There is better odds of defending either place if there are more people involved in the defense of whatever resources you have.
Plan ahead, place what you need where you may use it. Allow those you trust to do the same for the possible time they may need to come your way.
We know where we could go, and we know the people that may come our way. They know what we will bring, and we know what they will bring. Planning, testing during the good times, keeping communications going now so we know how to respond in other scenarios – – – knowing what will happen and how to keep your wits about you are all part of the process.
Hope for the best. Be ready to act.
CM
I always called it second hand nature people so stuck with accepting everything for what’s is and not what they could do
It’s the story of The Ant and the Grasshopper, except on a national/international scale.These locusts presume the aid of others while funnelling their resources into non-essentials and luxuries. When the latest I-Phone or a new tattoo takes precedence over even a basic emergency kit, they have proven that they are not fit to survive.
I own a preparedness/survival store within a major port City on the Texas Coast. Normalcy Bias is a thing. There are not as many preppers here, lots of reactionary knee jerkers that seem to think there will be plenty of supplies in the store to come get after a disaster. I have convinced some to become preppers, some to become even better preppers. But, a huge percentage think they can show up at their neighbors house or their friends ranch because they are ready. Look, unless you have a needed skill, can do heavy manual labor or can bring something valuable to the table don’t expect anyone to risk the safety of their family and their resources because you have failed to be ready.
Please, get your shit together people.
Times are fixing to get rough either by a natural disaster, Government failures or a combination of things that can and will destroy things that you have become accustomed to.
Help yourself because no one else will.
Godspeed everyone
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